I was just looking over the 00z NAM to see how the models are playing Friday out. So far we've got excellent vertical/directional shear and good moisture return. However, something that has me worried about this setup (and was mentioned in my earlier post) is the lingering precipitation over the target area. So storms are going to push through TX/OK late Thurs night into Fri morning (most likely forming an MCS). But as this storm system approaches lift will generate showers/thunderstorms throughout the morning into afternoon. This precipitation can stabilize the environment which can limit instability.
00z WRF/NAM 6hr Precipitation graphic for 18z (1p.m.) Friday.
ML CAPE for 18z Friday. The precipitation is stabilizing the target area, thus low values of instability are expected.
Now does this mean I will be sitting Friday out? Heck no! This just means that there are some obstacles to overcome before we see any severe weather. If there can be a break in the cloud cover where some areas can get some good ol' sunshine, maybe we can see ML CAPE values closer to 1500 J/kg. Then we would be in business. This is too good of a setup and too close not to chase. Not to mention I have the day off! So everyone keep your fingers crossed and think "sunny skies'!
Be sure to subscribe/follow so you can get the latest updates.
-Ben
Looks good Ben! We'll be coming up 287 leaving DFW around 1 pm. Do you want to try and coordinate at all? My cell is 214-334-6758 if you do.
ReplyDeleteSee ya under the MESO... if one forms ;)
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to your pictures!
ReplyDelete