It appears we could have ourselves another chase day next week. I am really enjoying these out of season chases. Read on to learn more about this forecast.
H5 (500mb) charts for 12z Monday (10/18). The wave set off from this trough if forecast to move through TX/OK by 00z.
Forecast 10/18/10:
A possible chase day is appearing on the recent model runs. A trough of low pressure over the western stated will eject a wave through the TX panhandle and western OK. In addition a surface low will develop in the TX panhandle. With adequate surface heating and moisture return, the CAPE values should be in the 1000 J/kg range. The lift from the trough and low should be sufficient for thunderstorm development. There are a few things I am concerned about, however. First the lack of stornger winds aloft. We're currently looking at around 15kts bulk shear. Secondly, the cap could also be an issue H7 temps around 7 degrees celsius and CINH around -150 J/kg. Any storms that do develop will be near the surface low. Lastly, it is a Monday and I'm not too sure if I will have that day off, we'll just have to keep an eye on this.
00z Surface temps in the upper 70's over most of the target area, and the low in the TX panhandle/OK border.
Moisture return is not going to be an issue here. GFS is showing a decent dryline cutting off most of the TX panhandle. Dp's in the 60's are expected over the forecast area.
A nice instability axis sets up OK/TX. MLCAPE values 1100 J/kg.
A stout looking cap is also over this area. Lack of surface heating and deep moisture could prevent thunderstorm development. CINH values of -150J/kg.
Its too bad the models are lagging the upper low so far back. I would really like to see that High Pressure system waite a couple of days before moving down here.
ReplyDeleteI hope the storm can lag into Tuesday when you can get your time off for a chase!
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