It looks as though we might have an interesting weather pattern approaching us this week. From freezing temperatures tomorrow night, extreme wildfire hazards on Sat/Sun, and a potential for severe thunderstorms, this next week will be something to keep an eye on.
Read on to learn more about the forecasts.
-Ben
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVE FROM THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE PLAINS.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WARM... DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY CREATING VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE HIGHEST. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE WEST.
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVE FROM THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE PLAINS.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WARM... DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY CREATING VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE HIGHEST. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE WEST.
First off we have a Freeze warning in effect until Saturday morning. Low temperatures are expected to reach near to below freezing levels.
Also a fire weather watch has been issued for Western OK as well as western TX.
Wildfire potential graph for NWS Norman county warning area. Note how Sunday has an "Extreme" wildlife potential. The sustained southerly winds at 20-25mph and RH in the 30-40% range are ideal situations for wildfires.
Lastly, we have a chance for thunderstorms from Thursday into Friday.
This unseasonal storm system is forecast to make its way into central KS by 00z Friday. A strong midlevel jet (55kts) maxing out over western OK and western north TX and the neutral tilt of the trough could result in organization the the thunderstorm's updrafts.
Another interesting feature are the H5 (500mb) temps. Very cold air aloft with areas reaching almost -25 degrees Celsius! Maybe a cold-core setup like 03/08/10?
Moisture return isn't too bad with dewpoints in the upper 50's to low 60's.
This is the only problem I have with this is the general lack of instability. Hopefully the strong forcing of the trough/dryline will generate enough lift for thunderstorms.
If that does happen then the storms will need to beat out a pretty stout cap.
It is still a while off and the models can change completely, but right now it looks like we have a decent chance for thunderstorms. Now I just need to know my next weeks work schedule.
Sounds exciting, Ben.
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