Looking over the latest NAM/GFS runs I am not convinced for Thursday. Also I am working so I will not be able to participate. The general lack of instability is the biggest problem with this setup.
Though the newest NAM is showing a little hope with an isolated pocket of MLCAPE around 400-500 J/kg. Everything else looks good for this. Decent moisture return (55-60 DP's), good midlevel support (50kts), and nice curving with the hodographs.
Judging by the model runs if I was able to chase my target would probably be on the TX/OK border just north of I-40. I'll just say Sayre, OK. Maybe we'll get the chance for some lightning photography at least.
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Wednesday, November 10, 2010
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I kind of wrote this day off simply due to the low CAPE, long drive, and homework that is piling up. CAPE still looks to be a big problem Friday.
ReplyDeleteBut I do think it will be interesting to see what 500 j/kg can do. My biggest hope is indeed for lightning Friday night. Maybe you can get some Thursday too?
Have fun whatever you do. :)