Happy Thanksgiving and Something Unexpected...

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! A potent Arctic cold front was moving through our area this morning. Around 4am isolated thunderstorms began to pop up on radar in Archer, Baylor, Clay, Jack, Montague, Throckmorton, and Wichita counties. These storms were forming just ahead of the cold front. One of these storms formed right over Wichita Falls and dropped pea-size hail, moderate rain, and frequent wind gusts around 40mph.

 HRRR Surface temperature analysis. I overlayed the approximate location of the front. You can see temperatures south of the from are in the 70's north and along the front it drops significantly (upper 40's).

Base reflectivity from KFDR. This isolated storm formed right over us.

I was surprised to see hail with the storm. The VIL was only around 12 kg/m2.

Echo Tops

HRRR surface CAPE. There is very little instability over our area at this time, but the strong forcing from the front/trough was enough to generate lift and spawn off a few storms.

Snowing in the Panhandle???...

A potent cold front made its way through western TX and OK yesterday. Surprisingly areas of the TX panhandle have reported snow accumulation. Here's the preliminary storm reports from NWS in Amarillo, TX.

000
NWUS54 KAMA 122032
LSRAMA
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
232 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010
..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..
0931 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W AMARILLO            35.20N 101.83W
11/11/2010                   POTTER             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA
            INTERSTATE 27 BEING CLOSED FROM GEORGIA TO HILLSIDE DUE
            TO NUMEROUS STRANDED CARS IN HIGH WATER. NUMEROUS HIGH
            WATER RESCUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AMARILLO.
0700 AM     SNOW             5 NNE ADRIAN            35.35N 102.65W
11/12/2010  M4.5 INCH        OLDHAM             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM     SNOW             3 NW VEGA               35.28N 102.46W
11/12/2010  M5.0 INCH        OLDHAM             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER
0710 AM     SNOW             HEREFORD                34.82N 102.40W
11/12/2010  M2.0 INCH        DEAF SMITH         TX   CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM     SNOW             6 SW AMARILLO           35.14N 101.91W
11/12/2010  M3.0 INCH        RANDALL            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE
0800 AM     SNOW             1 WSW BUSHLAND          35.19N 102.08W
11/12/2010  M5.5 INCH        POTTER             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM     SNOW             1 NE GRUVER             36.26N 101.41W
11/12/2010  M4.0 INCH        HANSFORD           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER
0825 AM     SNOW             7 SW AMARILLO           35.14N 101.90W
11/12/2010  M3.0 INCH        RANDALL            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA
            LOCAL BROADCAST METEOROLOGIST MEASURED 3 INCHES OF SNOW
            IN THE SLEEPY HOLLOW AREA.
0830 AM     SNOW             2 WSW BORGER            35.65N 101.43W
11/12/2010  M2.5 INCH        HUTCHINSON         TX   CO-OP OBSERVER
0905 AM     SNOW             6 WNW AMARILLO          35.23N 101.91W
11/12/2010  M4.5 INCH        POTTER             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE
0905 AM     SNOW             5 W AMARILLO            35.21N 101.91W
11/12/2010  M5.0 INCH        POTTER             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE
0928 AM     SNOW             1 NW PAMPA              35.55N 100.97W
11/12/2010  M2.0 INCH        GRAY               TX   CO-OP OBSERVER
0954 AM     SNOW             7 ENE AMARILLO          35.24N 101.70W
11/12/2010  M3.0 INCH        POTTER             TX   PUBLIC
            REPORTED 3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM NE 14TH AVENUE IN
            AMARILLO.
1000 AM     SNOW             DUMAS                   35.86N 101.97W
11/12/2010  E2.0 INCH        MOORE              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT
1015 AM     SNOW             6 S WILDORADO           35.13N 102.24W
11/12/2010  M5.0 INCH        DEAF SMITH         TX   PUBLIC
1100 AM     SNOW             6 WSW AMARILLO          35.17N 101.92W
11/12/2010  M3.0 INCH        RANDALL            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE
1100 AM     SNOW             SPEARMAN                36.20N 101.19W
11/12/2010  E4.5 INCH        HANSFORD           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
1240 PM     SNOW             PANHANDLE               35.35N 101.38W
11/12/2010  M4.0 INCH        CARSON             TX   PUBLIC

Areas around Amarillo are expected to have lows in the mid to upper 20's tonight through Thursday.

Thursday Forecast Update...

Looking over the latest NAM/GFS runs I am not convinced for Thursday. Also I am working so I will not be able to participate. The general lack of instability is the biggest problem with this setup.

Though the newest NAM is showing a little hope with an isolated pocket of MLCAPE around 400-500 J/kg. Everything else looks good for this. Decent moisture return (55-60 DP's), good midlevel support (50kts), and nice curving with the hodographs.

Judging by the model runs if I was able to chase my target would probably be on the TX/OK border just north of I-40. I'll just say Sayre, OK. Maybe we'll get the chance for some lightning photography at least.

Wild Weather this Week?...

It looks as though we might have an interesting weather pattern approaching us this week. From freezing temperatures tomorrow night, extreme wildfire hazards on Sat/Sun, and a potential for severe thunderstorms, this next week will be something to keep an eye on.

Read on to learn more about the forecasts.

-Ben

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.


OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVE FROM THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE PLAINS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WARM... DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY CREATING VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE HIGHEST. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE WEST.

 First off we have a Freeze warning in effect until Saturday morning. Low temperatures are expected to reach near to below freezing levels.

 Also a fire weather watch has been issued for Western OK as well as western TX.

Wildfire potential graph for NWS Norman county warning area. Note how Sunday has an "Extreme" wildlife potential. The sustained southerly winds at  20-25mph and RH in the 30-40% range are ideal situations for wildfires.



 Lastly, we have a chance for thunderstorms from Thursday into Friday.



This unseasonal storm system is forecast to make its way into central KS by 00z Friday. A strong midlevel jet (55kts) maxing out over western OK and western north TX and the neutral tilt of the trough could result in organization the the thunderstorm's updrafts.

 Another interesting feature are the H5 (500mb) temps. Very cold air aloft with areas reaching almost -25 degrees Celsius! Maybe a cold-core setup like 03/08/10?

 Moisture return isn't too bad with dewpoints in the upper 50's to low 60's.

 This is the only problem I have with this is the general lack of instability. Hopefully the strong forcing of the trough/dryline will generate enough lift for thunderstorms.

 If that does happen then the storms will need to beat out a pretty stout cap.



It is still a while off and the models can change completely, but right now it looks like we have a decent chance for thunderstorms. Now I just need to know my next weeks work schedule.