A Chase for this Sunday?...

After two unsucessful recent chase events. I am starting to have confidence that the season is underway for us. I was looking over the latest GFS run and it looks like Sat/Sun we could have a chase with some workable paramaters. I plan to chase the models verify. Read on to learn more.

Thanks.

-Ben

 Surface temperatures for 7pm Sunday. This 1000mb low is slowing making its way through central TX.



500mb chart for 00z Sunday. A nice storm system is making its way to the southern plains. Winds aloft are reaching around 50+ kts. Which gives us a bulk shear of about 40kts.

500mb Relative Vorticity chart. This storm system has got a little "oomph" to it. You can see the trough digging in the southern states.

 There is also sufficent moisture for severe weather.

 And a very nice instability axis. 2000 J/kg. That's more like Spring!

 Manageable CAP as well.

 Sounding for Wichita Falls, TX. This probably would not be my target the instability axis and deeper moisture is further south. I would probably pick Abeline, TX right now.



 Very impressive hodograph with a very nice right curvature.

Models are showing precipitation breaking out just after 1:00pm.

It is still a little far out, but this is the most promising set up I have seen for our area. Hopefully this will put an end to our drought and we can start to see some REAL weather.